The Defence Sector Boom: Are Valuations Getting Out of Control?

India’s strategic push for self-reliance in defence (Atmanirbhar Bharat), combined with rising geopolitical tensions and government incentives, has thrust defence sector stocks into the limelight. Mutual funds haven’t been far behind. The launch of dedicated Defence Mutual Funds—with more than ₹7,000 crore in Assets Under Management (AUM)—has created a new dynamic in the pricing of Indian defence stocks. However, with only about 15–20 investable companies, the sector now faces a dangerous imbalance between liquidity inflow and investable depth.

Case in Point: HAL's Soaring Valuation

Consider Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL)—a cornerstone public sector defence giant. Historically, HAL traded at an average P/E of around 15, in line with its capital-intensive, low-margins business. However, with sector-focused funds pouring in capital, its P/E ratio has skyrocketed to over 55, a nearly 4x re-rating, without a proportionate surge in earnings.

This surge is not driven by fundamentals alone, but by technical demand—mutual funds needing to deploy capital in a limited pool of stocks. The same effect is being observed across peers like BEL, BDL, Data Patterns, and Paras Defence.

The Problem: Too Much Money, Too Few Stocks

Here's the structural challenge:

• Only about 20 listed companies qualify as "defence plays."

• Of these, only 8–10 have meaningful liquidity and market cap to absorb large inflows.

• Funds with ₹7,000+ crore AUM chasing the same few names lead to valuation froth.

• Passive and thematic funds cannot hold cash and must remain fully invested, further fueling demand even in overvalued stocks.

• Market Efficiency at Risk

  
  

This dynamic raises some red flags:

Distorted Price Discovery

When mutual fund buying is based on theme compliance rather than earnings growth or profitability, prices get decoupled from fundamentals.

Concentration Risk for Investors

Many of these defence funds end up holding similar portfolios, leading to crowded trades and amplified downside risk in corrections.

Liquidity Trap in Corrections

When the cycle turns or when these funds start seeing redemptions, the same illiquid nature of these stocks could exacerbate the fall, as there's no institutional buyer left at elevated prices.

Our View at Pranamya Financial Services

While we believe in the long-term growth potential of the Indian defence ecosystem, driven by increased defence budgets, exports, and indigenization, we caution investors against buying into hype-based rallies.

The current rally is not earnings-driven, but flow-driven.

HAL and similar stocks now bake in a long runway of growth, which might or might not materialize at the pace the price suggests.

Valuation discipline must not be sacrificed at the altar of thematic excitement.

We advise staggered investment in the sector and favor diversified exposure over sector-specific bets at current levels.

Conclusion: Structural Growth Meets Cyclical Froth

India’s defence sector is structurally promising. But like all narrow-theme sectors, it’s vulnerable to valuation bubbles when liquidity outpaces fundamentals. Mutual fund investors must ask: Am I investing in defence growth or in momentum-chasing hype?

With a limited basket of stocks, sector funds can create short-term distortions that can hurt long-term capital. As always, prudent asset allocation, valuation consciousness, and risk management should be your guiding principles.